A strategic withdrawal CONSUMER
January 31st, 2010
Since that time we sing the virtues of savings, Canadians seem to have collectively decided to take action. Then in 2007 they spared only 2.5% of their disposable income, they save twice today. And it will continue to increase. The savings rate hit 7% of disposable income at the end of 2009, according to forecasts of service Desjardins Economic Studies.
No doubt that Canadian consumers have radically changed their behavior. Personal expenses of the Canadian population declined at a rate of 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2008, and continued to contract in 2009 until now.
The impact of this strategic retreat on the consumer economy is important. It is well known, consumers have been 20 years since the main gear which allowed the
North American economies to grow by at least 2% to 4% almost every year. The insatiable desire to buy all those goods which served to add to the comfort and happiness, at least we had the illusion, ensuring economic growth. But in the first quarter of 2009, Canada's economy shrank at a rate of 5.4% on an annual basis.
The anxiety spreads
This drop in consumption should not surprise us, because individuals of many reasons to be worried. Many have lost their jobs. Between October 2008 and June 2009, the Canadian economy has been cut by 362 500 jobs. And this is probably not over, even by the admission of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. The unemployment rate, which averaged 6% in 2007 and 2008, now stands at 8.4% and could reach 10% before the end of the year.
Furthermore, the plummeting stock markets and falling house prices have eroded the wealth of many Canadians. The decline in value achieved for a number between 20% to 40%. No wonder they react by reducing their costs and fattening their savings accounts.
The current recession is the biggest since 1930. Consumers could therefore remain cautious for quite some time. Who then will supersede the consumer? Governments, of course
To revive the economy, at least they hope the various levels of governments are committed in a frenzy of spending programs and other infrastructure.
The costs explode
But costs are already enormous, and they continue to be for many years. These expenses, coupled with tax cuts and tax caused by the recession, will explode the budget deficit. It is anticipated that during each of the next two years the federal government alone will be a deficit of over 40 billion. We will bear the red ink until at least 2013-2014. And that as recently as 2007, the Canadian government had a surplus of over 15 billion.
These deficits will obviously have serious consequences for Canadians. The government will one day build. And when it does, it inevitably By drawing on the pockets of taxpayers.
But perhaps more importantly, the expansionary economic policies such as those currently practiced by governments and the Bank of Canada likely to cause high inflation in the coming years. It will tame the scourge quickly when the economy's gone and consumers have begun to eat. The economic and social costs will then be very high because it will substantially increase interest rates and raise taxes.
Tags: Bank of Canada, budget deficits, Canadian economy, consumer, economic recovery, Finance Minister, recession, savings accounts, stock market, tax cuts