China Could spring a surprise?

While the theory of economic decoupling between developed and emerging countries seemed swept by the crisis, the latest indicators Chinese could lie all forecasters. shanghaiechangeur1241387574These past months have been marked by massive withdrawals of capital invested in Southeast Asia is. The rise in risk aversion since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the dissemination of economic and financial crisis throughout the world have accelerated the drop in Asian markets - especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The contraction of world trade, declining investment and U.S. consumption, but also the collapse of raw materials, have significantly affected the structurally exporters - whether raw or, like China, goods consumption. Chinese exports have sharply declined to 20% yoy. However, there


is a phenomenon of import substitution to reduce the decline of trade surplus - in percentage terms, the decline in imports outpaced the decline in exports despite the rise in retail sales. It was thought that China would become the economic engine of global growth during this crisis and has yet seriously decelerated to below the 8% growth in fourth quarter 2008.  Some people saw it then possible challenge to the Chinese model by rising unemployment and the emergence of a social crisis for China to move toward a more democratic model. But in recent weeks show a significant economic recovery in China. Not to mention a definite return to sustainable growth, China looks set to maintain a decent growth without the possibility of Western countries to absorb its exports. Faced with the difficulties of the country, the Chinese government has implemented a major recovery plan over two years of 4 000 billion yuan. Expenses are primarily related to health (400 billion), education (150 billion) and public infrastructure (1500 billion). Moreover, the monetary policy has been relatively aggressive: the rate at 1 year increased from 8 to 5%. The CHIBOR decreased approximately 400 basis points (from 5 1%), and the reserve requirement from 18 to 8%. The Government will revive the economy seems to have had very positive effects. The credits granted by banks increased by almost 25% - excluding certain short-term financing, the trend remains close to 20%. The production of cement has increased by 40% yoy, construction investment rose by over 40% in early 2009 (after having been negative in late 2008). Many leading indicators confirm the resumption of activity. The amount of electricity used in March rose 13.8% in Shanghai, 20% in Jiangsu and 26% in Guangdong. Moreover, the PMI Chinese rose in March for the fourth consecutive year to reach 52.4 and manufacturing production is rising at 10% yoy. The signals for stabilizing the economy, see a recovery are to be taken into account. But beyond these economic factors, the Chinese economy is evolving. The macroeconomic fundamentals are in many ways much better than in other emerging countries: trade surplus, large foreign reserves, inflation control, growth over these competitors, budget surplus in recent years. Russia, Brazil, India and especially the countries of Eastern Europe are much more dependent on external capital to finance their growth. In his last report (Quarterly update, March 2009), the World Bank therefore considers a decline in direct investment in China and a larger withdrawal of volatile capital would not impact too important for the country's economic stability. Yet the greatest challenge of the Middle Kingdom is probably the transformation of its economic model based on exports to growth turned on domestic consumption. With a savings rate of the population still too high (around 50% against less than 15% in the United States), China needs to rebalance its economic model to household consumption. This would increase China's imports and thus reduce global trade imbalances, but also to enjoy the Chinese population of the wealth it created. The excess capacity found in China could disappear then turning to the market. The crisis could accelerate this process. It also notes that retail sales remain above 10% (GA). Moreover, the Chinese banking system, whose opacity and lack of credibility are important, seems to have been largely protected from the toxic assets by its lack of international openness. The risk of any banking problems - especially for small banks in China - come primarily from a decline in the real economy entails higher corporate bankruptcies and rising bad debts. The banking and financial challenges lie ahead: open financial markets, floating the yuan, development of financial transparency. The challenge of economic development more sustainable and green will also be addressed very quickly, given the importance of the country's population. Finally, if we do not believe in a strong and sustainable growth of China without the countries of the Triad - given its dependence on exports, we remain convinced that the Chinese economy will continue to remain robust and has the means to maintain a dynamic than those of its competitors. The institutes also provide economic growth Chinese near 6.5% for 2009 when the world economy is in recession (-1.3%).

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