Develop economic policies without reference point

The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, both appear to agree about the risks that always runs the Canadian economy and to cope they urge Canadians to reduce their indebtedness. But they certainly did not have the support of all experts. Indeed, the finance minister has announced he wants to tighten the terms of mortgage financing in Canada. Without giving a specific purpose, the Minister informed that the first minimum downpayment of a home buyer will eventually be greater than 5% as is currently the case. Then he said that the terms of depreciation, that is to say, the mortgage maturity, which can stretch over 35 years now, will henceforth be shorter. A week earlier, the Governor

of the Bank of Canada had stated that the Canadian household debt was too high and that this proves the factor most important risk hanging over the recovery of the economy. Everything indicates that Carney and Flaherty are the same risks as the measures proposed by the Minister of Finance is precisely to reduce this debt. Why is it the most serious risk that the Canadian economy short, while most economists agree in saying that the recession is over? I thought that excessive debt can cause a problem when the economy slows down, not when it improves. Moreover, many economists were quick to retort that the project of the Minister of Finance may cause more harm than good to the economy because it will weaken the housing market, a very important sector throughout economy. Others say that the economic recovery is still far too fragile to introduce binding measures such as this. Since autumn 2008 the governments and central banks have not hesitated to make available to economic agents all financial resources necessary to avoid a collapse in demand for goods and services that could plunge us into a depression similar to than 30 years. Carney and Flaherty probably feel that it is time to reverse and correct the imbalances, or household debt, of course, but also the huge government deficits. If we begin with the household debt is that the Bank of Canada, who always keeps an eye on inflation, will want to raise interest rates some time next summer, possibly soon spring. A rise in interest rates has always, one suspects, an unfortunate effect on people who have too much debt. But also, if we succeed in reducing household debt, it will be much easier to address the deficits of governments, for who you think will have to contribute to repay government debt? One thing is certain is that opinions are more divided than ever about economic policies in favor. The situation experienced over the last two years has not comparable. However, establishing economic policies without reference point is always a difficult task. This will happen in 2010.

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