EURCHF – is clearly oversold
April 8th, 2010
The Euro-Swiss franc continues to show us a technical issue rather complicated. After losing the key support of 1.4300 which was the lowest October 2008 has gone to a new low in the 1.4232. In the short term is framed within the range between support of 1.4285 and 1.4358 resistance. Despite the rebound in recent sessions, the technical side of the crossing is still quite weak.
In any case, we see that the stochastic and Relative Strength Index are extremely oversold as a principle point out that the next move should be bullish dominant. Another element that draws our attention is drilling down to the lower Bollinger bands. On previous occasions when this has occurred,
the crossing has rebounded with some force after a reasonable time oversold.
Once you lost the key level of 1.45 gives the impression that the Swiss National Bank, the SNOB has thrown the towel in their fight against the appreciation of Franco. Having regard to its recent record of interventions to defend the level of 1.50 gives the impression that might have run out of ammunition. The recent statement indicates that the SNOB will continue the fight against Franco appreciation against the euro which they say is more due to the recent weakness of the Euro. In our opinion it seems a rhetorical exercise more than anything else, given the recent developments in the intersection.
The crossing is still hampered by funding problems of Greece and is acting as a potential refuge value of the Greek government bankruptcy. This step would be the last before going to the window to the IF.
Once you lost the key level of 1.45 gives the impression that the Swiss National Bank, the SNOB has thrown the towel in their fight against the appreciation of Franco. Having regard to its recent record of interventions to defend the level of 1.50 gives the impression that might have run out of ammunition. The recent statement indicates that the SNOB will continue the fight against Franco appreciation against the euro which they say is more due to the recent weakness of the Euro. In our opinion it seems a rhetorical exercise more than anything else, given the recent developments in the intersection.
The crossing is still hampered by funding problems of Greece and is acting as a potential refuge value of the Greek government bankruptcy. This step would be the last before going to the window to the IF.
Tags: euro, Swiss Franc, Technical analysis