Exchange Rate: Week from Friday 30 October to Friday, November 6, 2009
December 4th, 2009
During the week the dollar depreciated 0.86% against the euro and 0.18% against the yen, resuming its downward trend, interrupted briefly during the previous week in which appreciated against the euro, although not against the yen. Depreciation occurred Basically, during the last days of the week and was explained in part by the Federal Reserve decision to keep its benchmark rate at almost 0% and the European Central Bank's decision to do the same for the rate of 1.0%. Both banks showed similar views in relation to positive signals about the term of the crisis and the resumption of economic growth. Also, both banks showed little concern about inflationary pressures and an inclination to keep interest rates low until late in the first half of
next year .
This position of these two central banks generated some confidence in economic agents, which resulted in a slight decrease in risk aversion, reflected in a lower preference for shelter assets denominated in dollars. However, it should be mentioned that on Friday, at the end of the week, he announced an unemployment level of 10.2% in the U.S., which could affect currency markets in the week beginning. As stated in previous editions of this blog, the continuous change of investor sentiment, following announcements of changes in macroeconomic variables, will be a constant output at this stage of the crisis.
Another interesting observation of the week was a new record high in the price of gold on Friday, 6 reached U.S. $ 1095.05 per troy ounce.
So far this year, the dollar has depreciated by almost 6% against the euro and 0.18% against the yen.
Dollar-Sun
During the week the dollar showed a similar pattern to the sun, depreciated at 0.34%, maintaining the high correlation that has been occurring between the behavior of the sun and the euro. Also, as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank The Central Bank also decided to keep its benchmark rate at 1.25% and reflected the same opinion about the reactivation of the productive apparatus of the Peruvian economy, inflationary pressures and expectations on the downside and the inclination to maintain the rate of reference low for several months.
Thus, so far this year, the dollar recorded a cumulative depreciation of 7.51% against the sun.
During the week we made the following important announcements to the exchange market: real depreciation of 0.6% of the sun, against a basket of currencies against which markets the country, so far this year inflation of 0.71% in the last twelve months, balance of trade surplus and improved terms of trade in September. These ads play on Sun.
At the end of the week the Central Bank released its survey, to 30 October on macroeconomic prospects of the financial system, economic analysts and nonfinancial firms.
The following expectations are reported as the first two categories of respondents:
Year 2009:
Inflation: From 0.76% to 0.80%
Rate: From S/.2.88 to S/.2.90
GDP growth: 1.5%
Year 2010:
Inflation: From 2.00% to 2.20%
Rate: From S/.2.90 to S/.2.91
GDP growth: 4.2% to 4.3%
Year 2011:
Inflation: From 2.20% to 2.50%
Rate: From S/.2.87 to S/.3.00
GDP growth: 5.0%
Tags: dollar, euro, Exchange rate, exchange rates, gold, sun, yen