What can we expect the evolution of stock markets after sharp rise started in March of 2500 points on the CAC 40 to more than 3,700 points in mid September or nearly 50% increase! One can, of course, argued that 2008 had resulted in one of the largest declines in stock market history -42% following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Bank, September 15. Everything is not settled.

Far from having solved their highest in 2008, courts have nevertheless found their level before the Lehman crisis. This rapid rise has carried over from the second quarter last spring. The reasons lie in stopping degradation of short-term economic indicators (see our article "Financial

The continuation of accommodative monetary policy, interest rates near zero, massive injection of cash and shares "unconventional" by the central banks first, recovery plans from the states (tax cuts, stimulus public spending, premium breaks to support the automotive sector) other, have also strongly contributed to economic stabilization and the return of some confidence. The reduction in risk premiums on borrowing by industrial emitters and financial (reduced credit spreads), is also a good illustration.

From the moment that investors have seen that the present world would know no lasting depression (depression type Nippon 1990), it is clearly placed in the scenario of a recession, albeit violent and unprecedented in economic history recently, but that should be completed relatively quickly. Continuous improvement and fairly rapid economic statistics throughout the summer moreover corroborated that are relevant and what was then a bet on the cyclical improvement based on leading indicators and announcing the end of the recession and economic recovery.

All major economic organizations and financial OECD, IMF, World Bank then published studies along the lines of an upcoming release of the doldrums in which all economies of the world had plunged from October 2008.Cette Financial crisis s It was translated by a freeze of the interbank market and eventually stop funding the economy (systemic risk of bank failure), resulting in industrially by a cessation of production and the beginning of a massive de-stocking.

In late summer, the improved economic fundamentals and strong actions from central banks and states to implement a policy mix of large-scale (combination of monetary and fiscal policies) have yielded encouraging results to recreate conditions for global economic recovery.

However, the current economic scenario (incipient economic recovery) does not solve all problems and generate new ones. Indeed, the monetary policies of central banks have resulted in providing capital markets and banks with a volume of extraordinarily abundant liquidity and low-paid.

These liquidity are at present only weakly oriented towards financing the real economy if we judge by the low production of both credits to households than to firms. There, especially in the banking finance and investment, they were referred to the activities of "fixed income" that is to say, currency, commodities and rates of interests.

These activities are, of course, very profitable, but volatile and non-recurring.

However, it is probable that at the forthcoming G20 meeting in Pittsburgh, United States, 24 and 25 September, new rules are set to redefine these activities in terms of risks they generate and capital requirements need to put in place to limit leverage (the debt limit).

The traditional intermediation activities (collecting deposits and granting loans to households and businesses) should therefore return to a boom. It is also necessary that the demand for credit is at the rendezvous. The household constraints to reducing debt with falling home prices, weak revenue growth and rising unemployment are heading in the direction of lower loan production. It is the same for all companies engaged in reducing their operating requirements (inventory and receivables), management costs and investments after the collapse of its order books.

The states finally have all exploded deficits and public debt to support their domestic economy, domestic demand and banking system. It was the object of recovery plans for the economy and various measures to stabilize and strengthen the banking structures (equity, guarantees and equity investments in capital). Their margins for maneuver are virtually nonexistent spending cuts largely incompressible and undesirable, and raising taxes hardly conceivable in a recovering economy.

The hi can under these circumstances that come from outside of a revival in exports and a shift towards emerging countries.

Two examples illustrate this need, first, the recent success in aeronautics with the promise of sale of military aircraft of type "Rafale" Dassault Group in Brazil and on the other hand, the bid by Vivendi to acquire a large telephone company still in this country. The telecom sector is one area where we have already global leaders in size.

Other tracks are also put in place quickly, finding new sources of growth such as those related to renewable energies and proceed without delay to the restructuring of industries in which we have hitherto competitive advantages such as automotive The challenge is now switching to electric cars.

This shows that stock markets were largely anticipated and incorporated the positive aspects of improving the economic and financial environment, the rapid rise in indices and the relatively high valuation of companies attest (multiple of 15x capitalization of profits the current year).

But we are not immune to a movement if the correction diagram virtuous combination of improved macroeconomic indicators, renewed expectations of earnings growth, continued at a historically low interest rates and return the appetite of investors for the risk were to be challenged with the lack of a strong economic recovery.

Maintaining a level of high unemployment and the need to find revenue to close budget deficits would force economic agents in particular households to maintain a significant savings (savings or precautionary anticipation of higher future taxes).