Forex Market opening: The Euro goes favored

1259055034 Angela Merkel, has unlocked the approval of the rescue plan expected to Greece. The anticipated meeting of the European Council met in Brussels with the leaders of the 27 Member States of the European Union has given the green light to a plan that was long expected by the markets.

As has become customary the tandem formed by France and Germany has been decisive, once again, to go ahead with the plan of financial aid to Greece which has been very difficult to obtain by the various competing interests. Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel have reached a tentative agreement has been ratified, after negotiations with the other leaders of the Eurozone, the European Council President,

Herman Van Rompuy.

The main points of agreement are threefold:

1. Bilateral loans coordinated between Member States that operate only as a last resort, ie when the market is insufficient funding. Also specifies that "the payment will be decided by unanimity of the Member States of the Euro Area under strong conditionality based on the valuation of the European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB)."

The text of the agreement in principle warns that the mechanism will not provide funding assistance "subsidized interest rates." It will seek to establish a credit line that "encourage a return to market financing as soon as possible." Decisions on the mechanism shall be developed taking into account "the Treaty and national legislation."

2. International Monetary Fund loans
What is unknown is the final amount of aid but there is speculation the figure of 30,000 million euros, of which two thirds would be met with bilateral aid and the remaining third with funds from the IMF.

3. The excessive deficit procedure will be strengthened. There is talk of a Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) reinforced which could impose higher penalties on those countries that exceed the deficit level permitted a recurring basis, including expulsion Euro temporary. Many have been surprised by the sudden urge to hardening of the rules of the SGP by Berlin when in 2003, Germany and France were the ones who forced their flexibility.

As for raw materials, we see that oil remains almost flat with respect to our yesterday's close. The recent strength of the dollar limit the potential progress of black gold. At present, the future of Brent May 2010 goes up to $ 80.10 and the future of West Texas the same maturity is going up to $ 81.00.

The ounce of gold and an ounce of silver are weakened by the strength of the dollar, and yesterday they both stopped in at $ 1,085.30 and $ 16.545 respectively.

As sovereign fixed income, we see little movement regarding our previous close. Today, we have a date in the calendar of issuance in the primary market. From Italy we have a bond auction CTZ with an estimated volume of 2,500 million euros (1100).

Main foreign exchange market crosses:
The Euro-Dollar is rebounding after the agreement on the rescue plan to Greece last night but went to a new low last year and ten months 1.3268. We still believe that should do the 'pull back' the perforated support of 1.3435. This week has given us the crossing are clear signs of weakness on Wednesday after drilling key support of 1.3435. In addition, managed to overcome the very strong level of 1.3400 that is happening where 61.8% of all Fibonacci retracement from the lows of October 2008 at 1.2330 to the maximum November 2009 of 1.5145. Below, his next stop is at 1.3256 bassist.

The publication of the details of the rescue plan to Greece should reduce uncertainty about the single currency. Our scenario is on the rebound. We must be very attentive to the weekly closing prices to see if we as missing important technical levels has passed.

The Euro-Yen seems to want to keep climbing uploaded to the wave of strong upward rally of the last two sessions. Yesterday he stopped at a maximum daily at 123.90 which becomes its first resistance. It has been perfectly fulfilled the objectives that will mark yesterday, a first in the 123.35 and the next at 135.90. We still believe that should continue rebounding from the forthcoming session. The recent daily candle into a hammer and the potential figure-head-shoulder shoulder invert we see in the daily chart, we clearly set the direction. If the bags allow upward trend might have to clavicular line passing through the 125.24. This forming the second shoulder and still has potential.

The Euro-Swiss franc seems to want to go above 1.43 but at the moment can not with the resistance of 1.4309 and 1.4319. Should overcome them to think of a short-term recovery. In any case the technical side of the crossing is still fairly weak after drilling with minimal force on Tuesday October 2008 at 1.4301 and move to a new record low at 1.4232. For now, it seems that the SNB has thrown in the towel when it comes to prevent appreciation of Franco.

The Euro-Pound recovers, as expected, the level of 0.90 after easing concerns the rescue of Greece. He's gone up every day in the 0.9014. Remember that good yesterday after retail sales data in the United Kingdom went to a recent low at 0.8879. Should move forward until at least 0.9050 but the recent volatility in the junction difficult to operational trading.

The Pound-Dollar makes it very difficult to achieve its technical drilling the 1.4855 support yesterday who had played previously. Curbed to a minimum daily at 1.4798 and close to the annual minimum of 1.4784 it reached in early March. If markets moderate risk aversion does not rule out that the crossing head back towards the 1.5000 area.

The dollar-yen levels consolidates after sharp gains for the week in which he has managed to pierce the guideline bearish medium-term primary was drawing since June 2007. Yesterday I went to a session high at 92.955. After this event we believe you have a clear potential to 95 and 100. However, logic tells us that it should purge the gains of the last two sessions because of excessive verticality of the climb.

The Kiwi-Yen maintains the upward momentum of the last two days and gone up in 65.71. Now their next stop in the bulls are in 65.90 and 66.00. We do not rule that corrects to 65 in preparation for the next session.

The Aussie-yen take a breather after hitting an intraday high yesterday at 84.660. Also we believe that it should reverse the recent momentum for the upcoming session.

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