Investing in pounds
January 24th, 2010
The euro continues to dream of the possibility of reaching parity with the British currency. Since the birth of the single currency in 1999, the euro almost never regained parity with the currency of Great Britain.
The pound all these years showed a sign of strength than the common European currency. The battle between the two currencies is very close.
There are very few precedents in which remember the euro ahead of a pound. For example in late 2008 and early this year, the euro hit its historic peak in the 1.019 units per pound, or whatever it is the same as 0.98 pounds per euro. Then during the month of October, again stood at
EUR 1,07 per pound. Finally the middle of this week returned to recover the value of the euro against the pound at 0.9016 pounds while ranking this position was not sustained at the end of the week.
So far this year, the euro has depreciated 6.40% against the UK currency, but since August has recovered 4.93%.
That is why some approaches currently believe that distance is not insurmountable.
Today, it is clear that UK capacity to hold large public deficit and public debt levels without promoting a rise in interest rates and without putting the pound under significant pressure, is much smaller than the U.S. .
According to the findings of the credit rating agency Fitch, the UK exhibits a potential risk of losing the highest AAA credit rating enjoyed by the major world powers.
The risk of losing this important international credentials, analysts are in the fiscal stimulus packages that Britain continues to drive.
There is a reality, the improvement is not strong enough to conclude without doubt that the economy has returned to positive growth rates, according to statements by the representatives of the British Chamber of Commerce. This leads to the impossibility for the moment, the Bank of England clearing the measures which is facing down the crisis.
The IMF estimates that Britain will have a fiscal deficit of 11.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009, the second largest among the G20 countries, behind only the 12.5% in the U.S..
This cocktail has a direct impact on the British currency as pessimism about the pound is reaching very high levels, thereby reopening the doors of parity to the euro.
To the extent that the British economy, do not lift head, you can not withdraw monetary stimulus and raise interest. This has negative effects on the position of the currency.
Tags: approaches currently, British currency, European currency.