Latin America attracts new investors
March 9th, 2010
Hard hit by the crisis, countries in Latin America seem close rebound. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, all entered into recession this year (up to 6% decrease of GDP expected in Mexico in 2009) should resume as early as 2010 with growth of 1% to 3 %.
Given this gradual return of the economy, Latin America is attracting new investors, who see the immense growth potential of the continent out gradually from the rubble of the crisis. The MSCI EM Latin America could well cross the threshold of 3 500 points a few weeks, lost sight level since September 2008.
Race in this new investment, each country has its peculiarities to play. The Bolivia and Peru havestrong economic structures and dynamics with very strong growth, but should still suffer in coming years important socio-political tensions.
In this regard, Chile seems to be the country of the continent's strongest.
The country benfica first fundamental economic healthier than its neighbors (inflation control, growth, balance the budget surplus until the very crisis, current account balance rarely negative and insensitive to capital volatility).
In addition the country is economically less cyclical compared to its regional competitors. It enjoys abundant natural resources, particularly mining (world's largest producer of copper). Its growth has been stable for over twenty years, strength reinforced by "a relative consensus on the outlines of economic policy."
This good management in Chile leaves large margins to implement contra-cyclical policies (public debt is less than 30% of GDP).
All these advantages explain why the country has a good reputation among investors, which should be a champion of the recovery on the continent.
There remain some weaknesses, including an excessive dependence on copper exports, a strong energy dependence in particular for gas supply and socially, very marked inequalities, a factor of tension.
Other countries which once again draws the attention of investors: Mexico. It also expects a significant recovery has been strong recession. The country has indeed been extremely affected by the economic crisis, with an impressive drop in GDP and trade with the United States. But this weakness becomes an advantage when the recovery will take place in the country by Barack Obama.
Among the weaknesses, the public finances are still very dependent on oil revenues. But for now, the recent rise of oil is conducive to the resumption of the Mexican economy. Domestically, however, the country is still plagued by a wave of heavy violence and rampant crime, a factor of insecurity and instability.
Finally, investors should not forget that Mexico remains the second largest economy in Latin America, with a huge potential market.
What about Brazil? 5th world population, the country enjoys a vast market, abundant natural resources (oil and agriculture), and "a highly diversified industrial base." As such the country's President Lula remains an inevitable investors bet on the future. With relatively stable macroeconomic policies, Lula also benefits of abundant foreign reserves, has helped significantly reduce the financial vulnerability. In addition to the real began to appreciate.
Finally, Brazil, whose importance in the global economy is growing strongly affected by the economic crisis on the last two quarters, but the recovery seems to be announced. Note, however, inflation remains monitor (4.2% for 2009).
The last giant of the continent, Argentina, however, lack of visibility. Like its neighbor, it benefits from its abundant natural resources. Driven by exports the country has a current account surplus in its trade balance, but tensions between the president Kirchner and farmers are indicative of the climate of distrust and lack of confidence in the current Peronist party.
Argentina has, moreover, difficult to dispose of its high public debt, and lack of stable economic institutions and policies. On the other hand, the credibility of official economic figures is still very controversial.
Latin America is more than 80 years, locked in hyperinflation, the indebtedness and political instability.
The continent should now become a true pole of attraction for years to come. In the medium and long term potential of the continent is clear and makes a vital investment. A short term however, it is better to avoid runaway. The markets are already highly reassessed. In the coming months, the upside potential seems fairly moderate the effect of catch-up has already occurred.
Tags: economic, potential market, the financial, the global economy., the markets