National economy Activity index increased in December 2009 for the last time

Activity in the Swedish economy, rose slightly in December, according to the estimated trend of the Activity Index. Trend value increased by 0.1 percent in December compared with November. If this pace were to continue for twelve months, it means an increase of 1.1 percent annual rate. The increase is explained by merchandise exports, industrial output and retail sales, according to the trend. Imports of goods resulted in a negative contribution, while hours worked by public employees only marginally affected the activity index. The change of the trend value of the activity index from December 2008 to December 2009 was -2.8 percent. Seasonally adjusted Activity Index, which more than trend affected by temporary disturbances grew by 0.2 percent compared with the month of November.

id="more-1221"> Closure of the Activity Index Production and publishing activity index will be closed until further notice from 2010. The last publication was made February 10, 2010 and relates to December 2009. The reason for the closure is primarily the uncertainty in quality. SCB will eventually investigate the possibility of developing another type of speed indicator or GDP flash. Revision of the seasonal adjustment Every year is a revision of the seasonal adjustment of the Activity Index. This review is amended / revised, if necessary, the model used for seasonal adjustment. In conjunction with the publication of the Activity Index for October 2009, has a new model replaces the previously used model for the Activity Index. It provides greater variability of the Activity Index in seasonally adjusted series, but gives a better description of the business cycle. Here the focus has been on the model's predictions for 2009-2010. At the sharp cyclical swings, the Swedish economy is now in, is the uncertainty of seasonal adjustment larger than normal, which often results in the seasonally adjusted series are affected by extreme values, called outliers. The new model before adding the sharp downturn in the seasonally adjusted series to November 2008.

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