National economy The repo rate remains at 0.25%
February 13th, 2010
Executive Board has decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 0.25 percent. At the same time are now assessing the economic recovery rests on firmer ground, and that therefore there is reason to raise interest rates slightly earlier than the assessment in December. The repo rate is expected to increase from summer or early autumn.
Cyclical upturn on firmer ground
The upturn in the economy has gradually become more and more clear. Growth in the world has been slightly higher. In Sweden, inflation has risen in recent months and developments in the labor market does not look to be as weak as in previous assessments. While the situation in financial markets has been steadily improving.
Low interest rates and an expansionary fiscal policy
has contributed to household consumption has recovered quickly. But the image of the recovery of two parts. Continue to lag developments in the industry for. When international economic activity picks up, assessed the demand for Swedish products and increase exports to rise. The coming years is therefore expected GDP to grow relatively strongly.
GDP growth than in the future but it will take time before the economy recovers from the severe downturn in the crisis. State labor market continues to deteriorate for some time yet, even if unemployment does not seem to be as high as previously assumed. The weak job market situation is expected to have a restraining effect on wage growth. It contributes to the pressure on inflation is not so very high.
In more normal monetary policy
In order to achieve the inflation target of 2 percent and for the recovery of the economy should be supported, have interest rates remain low. Therefore, the Board of the Riksbank decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 0.25 percent.
Following the crisis, the Riksbank lowered the repo rate to an historically low level. The information that has come since December indicating a further normalization of the financial markets and a slightly stronger development of the economy. Taken together, this means that the risk of a serious setback for the economy's recovery has been reduced and the economic recovery thus rests on firmer ground. Therefore, monetary policy can be adapted to more normal conditions a little earlier than what was adopted in December. Executive Board believes now that the repo rate will be increased from summer or early autumn. At the same time is now estimated that the increases in the longer term could be more progressive and the prognosis for long-term interest rate has been adjusted down slightly.
The repo rate affect mortgage rates contained in the consumer price index (CPI). When the interest rate increases in future will be the CPI to rise rapidly. Underlying inflation measured by the CPIF (CPI with fixed mortgage rates) is however stable close to 2 percent by the end of the forecast period.
Monetary policy in the future depends as always on how economic developments abroad and in Sweden the Swedish affect inflation and economic outlook. Such as wage increases will be higher or crown weaker than expected, interest rates may have to rise faster in future. By contrast, if wages increase more slowly or if the labor supply becomes larger, monetary policy can have a more expansive than the forecast.
Deputy Governor Lars EO Svensson reservation against the decision and recommended a reduction in the repo rate to 0 percent and continue to be reportorial 0.25 percent during the main scenario interest rate path until the fourth quarter of 2010. He claimed that such provides better outcomes for both inflation and resource utilization, with both a higher resource utilization and CPIF inflation closer to target. Such an interest rate path will not impose any problems for the financial markets functioning and financial stability, particularly as house prices and mortgage is not a stability problem and should not influence monetary policy.
Tags: financial markets, financial stability, Monetary policy, the economy's recovery