Opening FX: Today begins the European Council meeting
April 4th, 2010
Today begins the expected European Council meeting in Brussels which will discuss in detail the possible rescue plan for Greece. The chronic stress that Germany's strategy to avoid passing an explicit agreement rescue while Greece can continue to issue debt in international markets. Germany also use the occasion to try to impose greater fiscal discipline with which to prevent further attempts at debt problems. There is talk of a Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) which strengthened penalties could be imposed over those countries that exceed the deficit level permitted in an appellant, including the temporary suspension of the Euro Zone. For this reason many experts believe that community matters will be difficult to reach a final
agreement.
For its part, the strategy of Greece has limited discretion to the extent that it has little power in negotiating the bailout. The letter that used to come to the International Monetary Fund and is seen and it is further agreed that the IMF is part in the rescue plan.
While the southern periphery of Europe continues to cause headaches for Central Europe is that yesterday the ratings agency Fitch downgraded the sovereign rating of Portugal from AA to AA-and quarantined them by giving them a negative outlook.
As for raw materials, we see that the oil yields our positions on yesterday's close. The strength of the dollar limit the potential progress of black gold. At present, the future of Brent May 2010 goes up to $ 79.46 and the future of West Texas the same maturity is going up to $ 80.54.
The ounce of gold and an ounce of silver are weakened by the strength of the dollar, and yesterday they both stopped in at $ 1,085.30 and $ 16.545 respectively.
As sovereign fixed income, we see little movement regarding our previous close. Today, we have a date in the calendar of issuance in the primary market but very relevant. From the U.S. the Treasury will conduct an auction of bonds with a maturity of 7 years with an estimated drop of 32,000 million dollars (19:00 Spanish time).
Main foreign exchange market crosses:
The Euro-Dollar keeps falling pattern which accelerated yesterday after breaking key support of 1.3435. In addition, the crossing gave us a very bad signal to exceed 1.3400 where it spent 61.8% of all Fibonacci retracement from the lows of October 2008 at 1.2330 to the maximum November 2009 at 1.5145. Today marks a new low last year and ten months 1.3284. Uncertainty about the bailout to Greece and the change in rating of Portugal is still very negative for the single currency. After drilling the 1.3301 support now bear his next stop is in the 1.3259. Until we clear up doubts about Greece is difficult to put a bounce. Normally, that would make the 'pull back' the perforated support of 1.3435.
The Euro-Yen correct positions after the strong rebound yesterday's meeting that took him from a session low at 121.42 to a maximum at 123.04. We still believe that should continue rebounding from the forthcoming session. The recent daily candle into a hammer and the potential figure-head-shoulder shoulder invert we see in the daily chart, we clearly set the direction. If the bags allow upward trend might have to clavicular line passing through the 125.24. We believe that item again to open longer be placed in the 123.04 with a first goal in the 123.35 and the next at 135.90.
The Euro-Swiss franc remains in free fall and yesterday went to a new low in the 1.4232. Recall that before yesterday reached the minimum force drilling October 2008 at 1.4301. For now, it seems that the SNB has thrown in the towel when it comes to prevent appreciation of Franco.
The Euro-Pound remains weaker than in previous days. Yesterday he was up to 0.8911 in the daily minimum. If you can bounce would first target the 0.8980 resistance. The recent volatility in the junction difficult to operational trading.
The pound-dollar level yesterday lost 1.50 and went to a session low at 1.4855. Support has already played three times and could stop the recent falls. Losing it would go to annual minimum of 1.4784 it reached in early March. If markets moderate risk aversion does not rule out that the crossing head back towards the 1.5100 area and then test the 1.5200.
The Dollar-Yen yesterday drew a profound bullish candle and went up to the meeting in 92.400. This swept away the resistance of the 91 and 92. Attention must be given weekly at the end that if he could close above 92 would give the guideline for perforated bearish medium-term primary is drawing since June 2007. If the drilling has clear potential to 95 and 100. Logic tells us that it should purge the gains yesterday and at least go to the middle of the candle body yesterday.
The Kiwi-Yen keeps the momentum has slowed down yesterday and just before the resistance of 64.95. We do not rule that corrects up to 64.50 or 64.33.
The Aussie-Yen also drew a deep sail upward yesterday and went to a session high at 84.020. Should correct the strong momentum from yesterday to attack the 84.225 consistency.
For its part, the strategy of Greece has limited discretion to the extent that it has little power in negotiating the bailout. The letter that used to come to the International Monetary Fund and is seen and it is further agreed that the IMF is part in the rescue plan.
While the southern periphery of Europe continues to cause headaches for Central Europe is that yesterday the ratings agency Fitch downgraded the sovereign rating of Portugal from AA to AA-and quarantined them by giving them a negative outlook.
As for raw materials, we see that the oil yields our positions on yesterday's close. The strength of the dollar limit the potential progress of black gold. At present, the future of Brent May 2010 goes up to $ 79.46 and the future of West Texas the same maturity is going up to $ 80.54.
The ounce of gold and an ounce of silver are weakened by the strength of the dollar, and yesterday they both stopped in at $ 1,085.30 and $ 16.545 respectively.
As sovereign fixed income, we see little movement regarding our previous close. Today, we have a date in the calendar of issuance in the primary market but very relevant. From the U.S. the Treasury will conduct an auction of bonds with a maturity of 7 years with an estimated drop of 32,000 million dollars (19:00 Spanish time).
Main foreign exchange market crosses:
The Euro-Dollar keeps falling pattern which accelerated yesterday after breaking key support of 1.3435. In addition, the crossing gave us a very bad signal to exceed 1.3400 where it spent 61.8% of all Fibonacci retracement from the lows of October 2008 at 1.2330 to the maximum November 2009 at 1.5145. Today marks a new low last year and ten months 1.3284. Uncertainty about the bailout to Greece and the change in rating of Portugal is still very negative for the single currency. After drilling the 1.3301 support now bear his next stop is in the 1.3259. Until we clear up doubts about Greece is difficult to put a bounce. Normally, that would make the 'pull back' the perforated support of 1.3435.
The Euro-Yen correct positions after the strong rebound yesterday's meeting that took him from a session low at 121.42 to a maximum at 123.04. We still believe that should continue rebounding from the forthcoming session. The recent daily candle into a hammer and the potential figure-head-shoulder shoulder invert we see in the daily chart, we clearly set the direction. If the bags allow upward trend might have to clavicular line passing through the 125.24. We believe that item again to open longer be placed in the 123.04 with a first goal in the 123.35 and the next at 135.90.
The Euro-Swiss franc remains in free fall and yesterday went to a new low in the 1.4232. Recall that before yesterday reached the minimum force drilling October 2008 at 1.4301. For now, it seems that the SNB has thrown in the towel when it comes to prevent appreciation of Franco.
The Euro-Pound remains weaker than in previous days. Yesterday he was up to 0.8911 in the daily minimum. If you can bounce would first target the 0.8980 resistance. The recent volatility in the junction difficult to operational trading.
The pound-dollar level yesterday lost 1.50 and went to a session low at 1.4855. Support has already played three times and could stop the recent falls. Losing it would go to annual minimum of 1.4784 it reached in early March. If markets moderate risk aversion does not rule out that the crossing head back towards the 1.5100 area and then test the 1.5200.
The Dollar-Yen yesterday drew a profound bullish candle and went up to the meeting in 92.400. This swept away the resistance of the 91 and 92. Attention must be given weekly at the end that if he could close above 92 would give the guideline for perforated bearish medium-term primary is drawing since June 2007. If the drilling has clear potential to 95 and 100. Logic tells us that it should purge the gains yesterday and at least go to the middle of the candle body yesterday.
The Kiwi-Yen keeps the momentum has slowed down yesterday and just before the resistance of 64.95. We do not rule that corrects up to 64.50 or 64.33.
The Aussie-Yen also drew a deep sail upward yesterday and went to a session high at 84.020. Should correct the strong momentum from yesterday to attack the 84.225 consistency.
Tags: Aussie, bonds, Brent barrel, Euro Dollar, Forex, Gold Ounce, Kiwi, Pound, Swiss Franc
