Those expecting the imminent Canadian dollar parity with the U.S. dollar should consider another phenomenon: the rise of the U.S. dollar on world markets.

Ashraf Laidi, chief market strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in London, doubts, moreover, that the dollar will reach parity with the greenback. And if there is parity, by the end of June, it was of short duration and will be followed by a decline in the Canadian currency. Thereafter, the dollar could fall as low as $ 0.90 U.S., says he.

However, the Canadian dollar could continue to appreciate against other currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar. These countries have already begun

Period bullish for the U.S. dollar

According to the expert in foreign currencies, the U.S. dollar is also embarking on a new bullish period. This stems from many factors: normalization of U.S. monetary policy, extension of the debt crisis of Greece, easing forced the European Central Bank, tightening credit conditions in China and India.

Mr. Laidi said that the last climb of the U.S. dollar had lasted three weeks (December 23, 2009 to January 15, 2010).

The rise of the U.S. dollar is very weak in the euro, which suffers from problems of Greece and the euro area, "said Laidi.

Investors prefer to hold greenbacks, because it seems increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates before the European Central Bank. The latter could even be forced to lower its own economic stimulus. Mr. Laidi believes the euro will soon receive a low of $ 1.28 U.S..

Moreover, the United States did not need to announce a rate hike to indicate an early tightening of monetary policy, "he explains. The Fed has stopped for a few weeks to buy securities backed by mortgages. The next step could be an increase in the discount rate to reduce the gap between this rate and the rate at which prevailed before the crisis, so as to discourage the borrowing of funds by banks from the Fed.

The dollar will suffer from higher rates

Mr. Laidi believes that at the current Canadian dollar, the market assumes that interest rates will be raised during the summer.

"It would be naive to believe that the Fed will not increase its rates soon after the Bank of Canada," says Laidi, eliminating a strong argument in favor of the dollar.

According to him, the two central banks agreed to take coordinated action.

More broadly, the tightening of credit conditions in the United States will have a negative effect on the stock market, commodity prices and the Canadian dollar, which is correlated, according to Mr. Laidi. For example, the strategist predicts the price of a barrel of oil will fall to about $ 65 U.S. by the end of the year.