Positive signals on the money market

For the first time since the beginning of the financial crisis in July-August 2007, marked in particular by freezing the funds of the dynamic money-BNP, the interbank market seems to regain some normalcy. The difference between the rates daily and Euribor 3 months income is less than 18 basis points, a difference that was found then in July 2007. For the record, that gap has jumped 50 basis points from August 2007 to a peak of more than 130 in October 2008 with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. However there is some pressure on bonds. The rate of OAT to 10 years (Assimilables Treasury bonds) rose 3.9% Friday. In late December, the rate was 3.34%. One can interpret these figures positively and see a

steepening of the yield curve of interest with the hopes of economic recovery. It reads as a return to riskier assets: corporate bonds and shares. However, we can interpret these figures with more caution if we think the awareness of investors about the explosion of public debt-recovery plan and lower revenues. This movement implies a further rise in rates. For the market continues to rise, it is necessary that the scenario of stabilizing the economy in 2010 is accompanied by an interruption of the deterioration in profits.

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