Stock market: good prospects

The main indicator of the Ukrainian stock market, the PFTS index rose in July at 11.92 and.

subsection (or 2,90%) to 423.12 IP (whereas in July 2008, the PFTS index fell by 112.54 IP, or 14.66%).

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Trends in the domestic stock market continued to repeat the direction indicators on the world's leading stock markets. Thus, in the first half of July continued to drop in the stock market (which began in mid-June) on the background of unfavorable information from external markets and the negative trends in the economy of Ukraine. Later, however, the situation was reversed.

Among the factors that influence the dynamics of


the PFTS Index, one can identify a negative, namely: political instability, changes by the National Commission for Electricity Regulation in the investment program of the five power companies to decrease their funding, reduction of Ukrainian producers of coke production in June at 4% because of lower demand from steel companies.

Also, negative statements of some leading indicators of commercial banks, namely: a net loss of Raiffeisen Bank Aval in the first half amounted to 1,1 billion UAH., The proportion of problem loans to total loans granted by Ukrainian banks in June 2009 increased by 0,5 n. n. to 5,4%.

Among the positive factors include: the decision of the International Monetary Fund to allocate to Ukraine the third tranche Stand-by credit of $ 3.3 billion; failure of WTO member countries to impose appropriate sanctions against the Ukraine in connection with the action of 13% premium to the rate of import duty on imports of refrigerators and cars, the adoption of the Cabinet of Ministers decision on the increase in authorized capital Naftogaz "to 18,6 billion UAH.; Ukraine's obligations to provide the European Commission to reform the gas sector in order to get international credit for the purchase of gas and the reconstruction of CTA; Published data on the growth of industrial output in Ukraine in June compared to May to 3.1% increase in the international rating agency Standard & Poor's forecast of long-term rating of Ukraine from "negative" to "positive", with preservation of the credit rating of CCC +, increasing amounts of shipments to China of iron ore company Ferrexpo (which consists of OJSC "Poltava GOK") due to a conflict with China Metallurgical largest producer of iron ore (Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton).

Trading volume for the month amounted to 744 million UAH., That on 1,8% more than the corresponding figure for June. The volume of trading in the stock market increased by 28,4% and the market for municipal bonds in 13, 2 times. In other segments of the stock market have been declining, in particular: the market for corporate securities decreased by 1,7%, the government securities market - on 50,5%, and the market of investment certificates - on 45,4%.

In the structure of trading on the PFTS trading volumes leading position is the market of corporate bonds - 73.6% in July, against 76.3% in June. The second and third step taken, respectively, the market shares (23,9% in July, against 18.9% in June) and the government securities market (2,0% in July against 4.1% in June).

The leaders of growth in July among the PFTS index basket on the price shares were "Kryukov Car Building Works" (24.2%), OJSC "Avdeevsky Coke Plant" (17.8%), and OAO "Iron & Steel Works" (+ 15,2%).

Securities held in July, down on the price, are shares of OAO Mariupol Heavy Engineering Plant (-12.8%), OJSC "Dniproenergo (-10.3%) and Ukrtelecom (-9.7% ).

It is expected that world stock indicators throughout August will remain high volatility. Despite the still existing risks the fall of the world economy is likely to be dominated by the accumulated positive potential.

Increasing political risks, the lack of structural reforms in the economy, devaluation pressures will adversely affect the domestic equity market and increase its volatility. However, the positive external background information is likely to give impetus to the growth of the PFTS index in August.

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