The illusion of recovery

Everything to do to overcome the crisis without considering the consequences qu'auront longer term means used. This approach of governments across the planet since the beginning of the economic and financial crisis last year is expected to culminate later this week when the U.S. government will release its first estimate of economic growth for the third quarter, the period ending September 30. Because the figure is positive, for the first time in five quarters. Indeed, the consensus of economists forecasts economic growth of around 3% of our southern neighbors for the most recent period of three months. It will not be a surprise to Wall Street, because there is already celebrating a return to growth over six months. Indeed, the stock is up over

50% since March 9. But be careful, because some nervousness now seems settled. To Main Street, the festivities are likely to wait. The unemployment rate in the United States has already reached 9.8%, and could eventually reach up to 11%, according to the consensus of economists. The actions of governments Government programs have enabled unprecedented that a return to positive growth. Unfortunately, the effects of several of these programs are not recurring. Think of all the infrastructure that governments have established disaster for not only employment collapses completely. They will not last forever. But also, the auto industry has been raised by the land program whereby the government subsidizes people who undid their old to buy a new car or a new truck. Auto sales soared in August, but already they fell in September. Finally, residential construction has regained some strength in the United States through the introduction of a tax credit of $ 8 000 granted to purchasers of first homes. This measure must be completed in a few months and already activated for the industry that continues. No doubt, this 3% growth from government actions. We should not believe that consumers will soon be the responsibility of governments. Indeed, after several months of recovery, the index of U.S. consumer confidence has dropped again, according to the Conference Board survey. The index rose from 53.4 to 47.7. It's not as low as last February during the worst moments of crisis, but it still indicates that consumer confidence peaked very quickly. I fear that in a year or two at most, there will be deficits as the government plans to testify rescue and recovery. We will have missed the opportunity to clean house financial institutions and to refocus the economy towards something other than the automobile and real estate. But for now, the illusion of recovery mask the lessons we could learn from this crisis. Among Us? And of Quebec will also deal with a budget deficit higher than estimates of 3.9 million made last March. This will be 4.7 million. As for Ontario, as across Canada, and as for the United States. And it is also revising upwards for next year, or 4.7 million instead of 3.8. This is what the finance minister, Raymond Bachand, has just announced. The minister said that Quebec has faced a more difficult than expected. Do you not wonder that six months since the government relied on overly optimistic assumptions? I fear that this way of playing the ostrich regarding the impact on deficits and await the evidence before admitting the gravity of the situation we are preparing tomorrow painful?

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