Types of Changes: Week from Friday 18 to Friday 25 September 2009
December 2nd, 2009
From beginning to end of the week the dollar appreciated slightly against the euro in a 0.11%, and significantly depreciated against the yen by 1.96%. By the middle of the week the dollar had been depreciating against the euro, reaching the exchange rate of 0.6761 euros per dollar, before recovering and closing the week at 0.6807 euros per dollar. Against the yen, the performance was asymmetric, the dollar appreciated in the first day of the week, then depreciate and close the week at 89.61 yen to the dollar.
Overall during the week had an exchange market was characterized by downward pressure of the American currency and worries about their future. This development keeps consistency with respect to the allegations in previous reports of this blog and
is related to expectations recovery of the international economy and thus a lower risk aversion. This lower risk aversion falls on a quest for higher returns, which are taking place outside the market dollar. The dollar's appreciation against the euro, in the final days of the week is explained by investors' reaction to statements by the G-20 in Pittsburgh, about a possible withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the economy.
The downward trend of the U.S. currency is seen in so far this month, as in the last twelve months. Thus, so far in September, the dollar depreciated 2.39% against the euro and 3.77% in relation to yen. In the last twelve months, the dollar's depreciation was 0.52% and 15.87% against the euro and yen in the form in question.
In the G-20 in Pittsburgh is not providing for direct exchange and short-term, however, the issues that touch linked to imbalances in trade relations between countries, especially between China and the U.S. will affect in the long run, different types of change in the direction of a weaker dollar. Correction of the economic imbalance between China and the U.S. undergoes a stronger Yuan, consistent with growth in China more dependent on domestic demand and less dependent on exports. Consistent with this, the U.S. economy will have to have an orientation that emphasizes domestic savings, which runs the direction of a weaker dollar that discourages the demand for foreign goods.
Consistent with the previous paragraph, stating the expectations come to a stronger Yuan in the next 6 months, which in turn would impact on a revaluation of the currencies of other emerging Asian countries. This picture is complemented by major investors concerns a major loss for the dollar.
As expected the Federal Reserve kept its rate unchanged points nevertheless gave notice on the start of a withdrawal of the abundant liquidity in the system as a result of the increasing stabilization of the financial apparatus. This announcement led to different expectations and concerns regarding the appropriateness of this policy, the timing of it, and the impact that would occur in terms of the relaunching of the international economy and the dangers of inflation. This will have a greater volatility in coming days .
During the week we had the suggestion of Robert Mendel, famed economist, an expert on exchange rate systems, on the desirability of a fixed exchange rate between the dollar and the euro, which, according to the economist, would decrease the chances of international crises as the current.
Regarding the sun, the week was marked by a strong pressure against the dollar, which was reflected in a 0.41% depreciation of the currency. The pressures were such that forced the Central Bank intervention, something that has not occurred since May this year. On Wednesday the Central Bank was forced to buy dollars at a cost of $ 269 million to prevent the exchange rate falls below S/.2.87. The intervention of the central bank raised expectations in relation to a floor level for the dollar of S/.2.87, at least for the next few days.
The accentuation of the process of depreciation of the U.S. currency in relation to the sun, in the week ended Friday 25, is due to a restructuring of the AFP and portfolios of banks towards assets denominated in soles. This it, the reevaluation of the sun during the week could be explained by internal forces rather than footloose capital inflows, as was clarified by the Central Bank through a press release during the week.
By Friday 25 September, the dollar relative to the sun, has accumulated depreciation of 2.50% so far this month, and 2.52% in the last twelve months.
For the week starting as a result of the recent Central Bank intervention in the currency market can expect an exchange rate less volatile sol-dollar and a level close to U.S. $ S/.2.88.
Tags: dollar, euro, Exchange rate, exchange rates, sun, yen