During the week we had a major depreciation of the dollar against major currencies and gold, except the yen. This was due to positive expectations about the end of the crisis, a faster economic recovery in countries outside the U.S. and England as well as an increase in interest rates more quickly in countries with more rapid recovery. They gave support to these expectations the increase in benchmark interest rate to 3.25% by the Reserve Bank of Australia, who considered passed the dangers of a recession and an emphasis on inflation risks. Meanwhile the European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate by 1%, and the Bank of England's 0.5%. Thus, in the week the dollar depreciated 1.03% against the euro and experienced a slight appreciation

of 0.03% compared to the yen. The week ended with a record gold price of U.S. $ 1049.25 an ounce. Thus, so far year, we have a dollar decline of 5.24% and 1.25% against the euro and yen in the form in question. In terms of the last twelve months, the depreciation of the dollar is still 7.57% and 9.95%, against these currencies, respectively. While it may be an interval of recovery in the dollar, following a realization of gains by speculators, not expected, even a change in the trend of loss of value of that currency. The evolution of American currency is framed in a context of reorientation of economic agents' expectations in the direction of the end of the crisis and international economic recovery. Under these expectations, the concerns are directed toward the differential behavior they experienced the economies in the post crisis. In this sense, it is considered a major delay and slow the U.S. economy to return to acceptable growth rates and employment recovery, relative to other economies, which would force the Fed to keep interest rates at their current low levels, while other countries adjust their rates upward. The prospect of higher returns in different currencies to the dollar, in a context of lower risk aversion, generate the restructuring of the portfolio against the dollar. The depreciation of the dollar has experienced is forcing the central banks of Southeast Asian countries to intervene in the currency market, so to avoid a high appreciation of their currencies and the consequent loss of competitiveness of its productive apparatus. It has been observing interventions central banks of South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong. On the other hand is not seen major concern of U.S. policy makers to halt the falling dollar, despite statements in favor of a strong dollar by President Obama economic adviser Larry Summers and Secretary of State Gather. Against the dollar, at the present juncture, the U.S. face the dilemma between the desirability of a weaker dollar, which helps correct the economic imbalance in external accounts and support the economic recovery and the requirements of a strong dollar so as not to scare off investors in bonds, in circumstances where it incurs large fiscal deficits. However, in the medium term, there is little doubt that the U.S. have to choose to redirect the economy towards less reliance on domestic consumption for a greater volume of exports, with China, in addition, following the opposite course. This requires a weaker dollar. The medium-term prospects, coming two years are to further depreciation of the U.S. currency. Dollar-Sun Respect to the sun during the week the dollar has depreciated by 0.40%, closing the week at S/.2.8665. The evolution of the contribution of the American currency was under enough pressure on Tuesday, forcing central bank intervention, through a purchase of $ 40 million, where the rate stood at S/.2, 858, giving strength to the U.S. currency. This intervention, like the previous speaker raised expectations for a flat rate of U.S. $ 2.86 by the BCRP. However, if the Central Bank is consistent with its exchange rate policy does not prevent the trend in the price of the American currency, and limited to smoothing fluctuations high, the exchange rate may close the year below S/2.80. So far this year, the dollar, relative to the sun, has depreciated 8.55%. Regarding the last twelve months, the depreciation is 6.70%. Information generated during the week points in the direction of further strengthening of the sun in relation to the dollar. Thus, we have the following:

-) The August trade balance was a surplus of U.S. $ 539 million, which for the period January to August, a trade surplus of U.S. $ 2,828 million. -) The terms of trade of the country increased by 2.8% during August. So far this year, to August, the improved terms of trade is still 20.7%. -) In September there was a negative inflation of 0.09%. -) Net international reserves remain at a high level of US32, 259 million, to October 5. -) Country risk continues to decline. The spread between yields on Treasury bonds and U.S. Treasury Peru is located at 200 basis points.

-) According to recent international survey, Peru is considered one of the major investment destinations in Latin America in the coming years. All this information plays into a greater appreciation of domestic currency against the dollar. However, exchange rate, the country has been registering a loss of competitiveness with its main trading partners. Thus, although in August the multilateral real exchange rate experienced a slight decrease of 0.3% (real appreciation of the sun in relation to a basket of currencies of trading partners), in so far this year, the real exchange rate increased by 0.8% (depreciation of the sun). The latest survey of macroeconomic expectations developed by the Central Bank in respect of the exchange rate show a rate between S/.2.90 and S/.2.95 to the end of this year. By 2010, the survey reports a level between S/.2.90 and S/.3.00 and for 2011, has a range of S/.2.90 and S/.3.10. This blog is not consistent with the aforementioned expectations and provides standards exchange rate well below the S/2.90 for this new year and the next two years. Everything points in the direction of more sustained appreciation of the sun, which is not to say that along this path, do not have temporary fluctuations.