USDJPY – has been drilled with enough force bassist guideline
April 8th, 2010
As seen in the weekly chart, the Dollar-Yen has been drilled with enough force main bassist guideline medium term was drawing after setting up from 124.15 in June 2007. Yesterday I went to a session high at 92.95. After this event we believe you have a clear potential to 95 and 100. Near this latter point passes 38.20% of all Fibonacci retrenchment downward momentum from the peak in the 124.15 to the minimum of 84.82 multiyear. Prior has another important resistance at 93.76. Many analysts point to the range of 100-110 in which it would put its fair value.
The global economic recovery and renewal of the problems of sovereign risk after bailout Greece largely
explain the setbacks of the Yen. Japan's currency has been heavily favored given throughout the crisis by acting as a refuge value. However, logic tells us that it should purge the gains of the last two sessions because of excessive verticality of the climb.
From a fundamental standpoint, Japan's economy is going to tow the external sector by weak domestic demand. In addition, deflation is installed again in Japan so we doubt that the Bank of Japan to raise its rates from 0.10% now at least a couple of years. Factor that could slow the progress of the currency because Japan will again become the main funding currency carry trade as the Federal Reserve sooner rather than later is going to happen to normalize its monetary policy and their rates rise above the Bog.
From a fundamental standpoint, Japan's economy is going to tow the external sector by weak domestic demand. In addition, deflation is installed again in Japan so we doubt that the Bank of Japan to raise its rates from 0.10% now at least a couple of years. Factor that could slow the progress of the currency because Japan will again become the main funding currency carry trade as the Federal Reserve sooner rather than later is going to happen to normalize its monetary policy and their rates rise above the Bog.
Tags: carry trade, dollar, Fibonacci, USDJPY