Weekly, March 22
April 10th, 2010
Week that the meeting of the Fed has lived with industry references and prices; "News from the Fed? Not in decisions, maintaining the sentence rates remain low for an extended period of time, and continuing the program to purchase mortgage assets. Yes nuances of discourse macro: more positive about the job market (for the deterioration recedes stabilizes), and investments in software and equipment (seems to have risen significantly spiking).Looking forward to two changes: the reference disappears into the inventory ("minor role in the next quarterly GDP?) And new reference to the property market which discuss the bad figures (fall or zero growth at minimum levels). In short, progressive improvement of speech and a theme
to follow, real estate, again with specific dissent (Hoening). As for industrial surveys, balance from the Empire Manufacturing neutral and positive Philadelphia Fed. The February data show the continuous improvement of industrial activity and spikes in capacity utilization (72.7%) but still far from the levels at which the Fed rate hikes usually initiated (80%). As an indicator of growth, the LEI continues to accelerate (8.7% YoY) and pointing to high rates of GDP YoY.
The price figures for February are still not reveal any inflationary pressure, or from industrial figures (with falls in February PPI higher than expected and very comfortable core numbers: 1% YoY), or from the consumer (IPC lower than expected, 2.1% core rate of the low: 1.3%). The rate increases, both Bernanke, for the path of prices / unemployment / capacity utilization are not yet close. Mixed housing data, with lower-than-expected readings on confidence data (NAHB: 15 vs. 17. Ant. And am.), And better figures for building permits and housing starts in February. For now, we are still awaiting data from March / April (not affected by bad weather) for a clearer view on the timing of real estate.
Greece has come to monopolize the attention in Europe, not so much by the news from the ECOFIN and from rating agencies Ecofin gave some clues about possible aid to Greece (coordinated via bilateral loans), but again, no concrete figure / country / calendar / conditions. Next meeting with the Heads of Government meeting on 25-26 March, but it also seems unlikely to achieve detail in this forum. According to the German Finance Minister (Schaeuble) there is no political decision because she is not the fact of impending insolvency. Furthermore Birdcage feeling within the EU, Merkel demanding the possibility to exclude from the Eurozone countries that persistently fail, Trichet absurd considering this possibility, and while not ruling from Greece to knock the IMF. S & P was retiring to Greece from the list CreditWatch negative (and therefore decrease the immediate threat of rating) which was a major boost. Curious attitude of the agency after being ultra-orthodox in his previous trial, now turns to a stage (negative outlook) which provides for possible downgrades within 18-24 months if the Government fails to implement the plan. Among the macro references highlights the ZEW survey, but again improved estimates downward from the previous figure and with advances in current conditions. However, the market seems increasingly set in the data as it loses predictive power at this point in relation to the IFO, more often. As for prices, CPI in February, with no news (overall rate 0.9% YoY, core rate 0.8% YoY), and no sign of inflationary pressures.
Boj meeting in the center of attention, within a week without news from emerging. In Japan, the BoJ did not disappoint the market and credit facilities extended to 3 months to financial institutions. In particular the figure doubled to 20 bill. yen (222,000 mill. dollars), maintaining the trial on the economy (in recovery) and types (0.10%). The market seems to have read that this measure is still insufficient, plus a clear political wink economical solution, and that will come more of this type. The next month, with the quarterly review of macro forecasts, you can provide an opportunity for further action within the pop you look at Brazil, COPOM meeting, with maintenance of rates, when much of the market expected up 50 bp appears that rise postponed to April due to the lack of clarity in the price data ("temporarily higher comparative effect?). From India, figures and prices higher than expected (9.89% YoY in wholesale prices).
Week of scarce governmental changes in references; A earlier this week shopping in the U.S. fixed income in all segments, with the largest concentrated movements after the meeting of the Fed, then undo the movement live on Thursday, with rumors about possible rise discount rate by the Fed. Light curve shopping in Europe, with a two years back below 1%. As for corporate debt, a week of new developments, with levels of spreads in reading in June 2008.
Week marked movements in some currencies, dollar, two parties in the week, marked by Greece and the statements to which I alluded previously. The first with the peace of mind that led the change to levels above 1.38, the second is negative for the euro to new fears about the lack of unanimous response. Libra: week of recovery, in line jobs data better than expected. Maintain levels of 0.92 -0.94 ahead of an entry. Yen: no major change (around 90 levels) despite the decision by the BoJ to boost credit in the month of December was depreciatory trigger for the jump from 86 to 90. The yen pending further action.
Within commodities, small slopes. Regarding oil, the OPEC meeting, with no change in quotas and production. Some members (Angola) up the tranquility of the range of 70-80 dollars to 80-90 dollars / barrel. Although our strategic vision is positive, and we continue to believe in the possibility of surprises from the demand, we believe good choice tactically close open positions at levels in the environment of 70 dollars.
The price figures for February are still not reveal any inflationary pressure, or from industrial figures (with falls in February PPI higher than expected and very comfortable core numbers: 1% YoY), or from the consumer (IPC lower than expected, 2.1% core rate of the low: 1.3%). The rate increases, both Bernanke, for the path of prices / unemployment / capacity utilization are not yet close. Mixed housing data, with lower-than-expected readings on confidence data (NAHB: 15 vs. 17. Ant. And am.), And better figures for building permits and housing starts in February. For now, we are still awaiting data from March / April (not affected by bad weather) for a clearer view on the timing of real estate.
Greece has come to monopolize the attention in Europe, not so much by the news from the ECOFIN and from rating agencies Ecofin gave some clues about possible aid to Greece (coordinated via bilateral loans), but again, no concrete figure / country / calendar / conditions. Next meeting with the Heads of Government meeting on 25-26 March, but it also seems unlikely to achieve detail in this forum. According to the German Finance Minister (Schaeuble) there is no political decision because she is not the fact of impending insolvency. Furthermore Birdcage feeling within the EU, Merkel demanding the possibility to exclude from the Eurozone countries that persistently fail, Trichet absurd considering this possibility, and while not ruling from Greece to knock the IMF. S & P was retiring to Greece from the list CreditWatch negative (and therefore decrease the immediate threat of rating) which was a major boost. Curious attitude of the agency after being ultra-orthodox in his previous trial, now turns to a stage (negative outlook) which provides for possible downgrades within 18-24 months if the Government fails to implement the plan. Among the macro references highlights the ZEW survey, but again improved estimates downward from the previous figure and with advances in current conditions. However, the market seems increasingly set in the data as it loses predictive power at this point in relation to the IFO, more often. As for prices, CPI in February, with no news (overall rate 0.9% YoY, core rate 0.8% YoY), and no sign of inflationary pressures.
Boj meeting in the center of attention, within a week without news from emerging. In Japan, the BoJ did not disappoint the market and credit facilities extended to 3 months to financial institutions. In particular the figure doubled to 20 bill. yen (222,000 mill. dollars), maintaining the trial on the economy (in recovery) and types (0.10%). The market seems to have read that this measure is still insufficient, plus a clear political wink economical solution, and that will come more of this type. The next month, with the quarterly review of macro forecasts, you can provide an opportunity for further action within the pop you look at Brazil, COPOM meeting, with maintenance of rates, when much of the market expected up 50 bp appears that rise postponed to April due to the lack of clarity in the price data ("temporarily higher comparative effect?). From India, figures and prices higher than expected (9.89% YoY in wholesale prices).
Week of scarce governmental changes in references; A earlier this week shopping in the U.S. fixed income in all segments, with the largest concentrated movements after the meeting of the Fed, then undo the movement live on Thursday, with rumors about possible rise discount rate by the Fed. Light curve shopping in Europe, with a two years back below 1%. As for corporate debt, a week of new developments, with levels of spreads in reading in June 2008.
Week marked movements in some currencies, dollar, two parties in the week, marked by Greece and the statements to which I alluded previously. The first with the peace of mind that led the change to levels above 1.38, the second is negative for the euro to new fears about the lack of unanimous response. Libra: week of recovery, in line jobs data better than expected. Maintain levels of 0.92 -0.94 ahead of an entry. Yen: no major change (around 90 levels) despite the decision by the BoJ to boost credit in the month of December was depreciatory trigger for the jump from 86 to 90. The yen pending further action.
Within commodities, small slopes. Regarding oil, the OPEC meeting, with no change in quotas and production. Some members (Angola) up the tranquility of the range of 70-80 dollars to 80-90 dollars / barrel. Although our strategic vision is positive, and we continue to believe in the possibility of surprises from the demand, we believe good choice tactically close open positions at levels in the environment of 70 dollars.
Tags: Eurozone, Federal Reserve, Greec, oil market