What paper plays the emergent countries in the rise of petroleum?

petroleo-682375891 To few days of to have analyzed in detail the rise of the international prices of petroleum, I run into with an article published by the Prof. Javier Cheek of the IE Business School with a complementary interpretation that interests to me to put on the table. According to its interpretation, the problem of the increasing estimate of petroleum is explained basically by the side of the demand, a subject in which it seems to me key to deepen but that, without doubt, it does not manage to completely explain the bullish phenomenon of the prices. Cheek divides to the consuming petroleum countries in two great groups: developed and the emergent ones. First, they constitute a mature

market, that responds to the increase of the barrel of crude with a diminution of the demand; whereas the seconds, in the middle of a fervent process of growth and economic expansion, increase the level of consumption of crude, still against the high prices that can get to reach. The industrialized countries cross a fort nowadays process of deceleration in their rates of growth. Nevertheless, that fall of the consumption is not accompanied by a loss of the prices, because the increase of the demand by the side of the emergent countries compensates that reduction fully. The first group, the one of the developed countries, identifies itself with the members of the OECD, whose economies have seen shocks by the increasing instability of the financial markets, expanded from the United States towards the rest of the majors powers of the globe. The second, is in favor compound mainly of the Asian giants (China and India basically), some Latin American countries (like Brazil and Mexico) and the Member States of OPEC, characterized by the acceleration of its growth in the last years as a result of the favorable conditions for the export of its products. The result is an international price of the petroleum barrel that day to day breaks a new record today and, already reaches the US$ 126.20 in its variant West Texas Intermediate and 125.68 US$ Brent petroleum. Compared in real terms (that is to say, misestimating the effect of the inflation) it is possible to say that petroleum has reached the greater value in its history. Even so, many analysts wait for new increases. Unfortunately, prices in the surroundings of the 150 and 200 dollars do not seem to constitute themselves like the less probable scene.

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