What role do emerging countries in the oil price rise?
December 5th, 2009
A few days after having analyzed in detail the rise in international oil prices, I come across an article published by Prof. Javier Carrillo of IE Business School with a further interpretation that interests me put on the table.
According to his interpretation, the problem of rising oil valuation is explained mainly by the demand side, a topic that seems to deepen key but, undoubtedly, can not fully explain the phenomenon of upward prices.
Carrillo divides the oil-consuming countries into two groups:
the developed and emerging. The former is a mature market that responds to the higher cost of crude oil with a decrease in demand, while the latter, in the midst of a fervent
process of growth and economic expansion, increase the level of oil consumption, even in the face to the high prices they can reach.
The industrialized countries now experiencing a strong process of slowing their growth rates. However, this drop in consumption is not accompanied by a drop in prices because the increased demand on the side of emerging countries more than offset the reduction.
The first group, the developed countries, identifies with the OECD, whose economies have been shaken by the increasing instability of financial markets from the United States expanded to the rest of the major powers of the globe.
The second is mainly composed of the Asian giants (China and India basically), some Latin American countries (like Brazil and Mexico) and the OPEC countries, characterized by accelerated growth in recent years because of the conditions favorable for the export of their products.
The result is an international price of a barrel of oil daily and beat a new record today, and the U.S. reached $ 126.20 in its variant and West Texas Intermediate U.S. $ 125.68 Brent. Compared in real terms ( disregarding the effect of inflation) is possible to say that oil has reached the highest value in its history.
Tags: emerging economies, Market Analysis, Price of Oil, the Oil Market