What will happen to the dollar?
February 23rd, 2010
Since the beginning of global financial crisis was put on the table for discussion a topic hitherto unimaginable: we have to replace the dollar as world currency exchange?
The first voices on this issue began to be heard in a low, timid in some media, China formalized until the issue, asking the world a debate on whether to hold the dollar as world currency. Until introduced the agenda item at the last meeting of Emerging Countries.
For proponents of the dollar is an unthinkable scenario, replacing the dollar with another currency or a basket of currencies. What other currency is so strong, has endured so long and is as treasured as the dollar?
Since the
The first voices on this issue began to be heard in a low, timid in some media, China formalized until the issue, asking the world a debate on whether to hold the dollar as world currency. Until introduced the agenda item at the last meeting of Emerging Countries.
For proponents of the dollar is an unthinkable scenario, replacing the dollar with another currency or a basket of currencies. What other currency is so strong, has endured so long and is as treasured as the dollar?
Since the
crisis began the dollar and yen coins have served as refuge for those who got rid of nearly worthless shares to find another way of temporary investment. The newer coins or considered more risky, as the euro, Canadian dollar or Australian, were not so lucky.
For some the loss is irreparable constant value but others argue the exact opposite will happen. The first is based on that investors do not want to remain exposed to the U.S. economy will continue to show strong imbalances in fiscal and commercial terms.
No doubt once the world economy begins to show signs of renewed confidence, the situation in the foreign exchange market will change. That is why when countries begin to recover, the holders of dollars looking for a higher asset risk and return, returning to stocks and similar investments, which can cause even a flight to other currencies.
On the negative perspective of a strong dollar also affect long-term forecasts about the huge U.S. budget deficit, which increases every day as a result of the rescue plans prepared by the government to avoid the real depression. Besides the negative impact of relief measures are relative to the dollar in terms of budgetary indebtedness, these in themselves may lead to loss of dollar purchasing power.
When the U.S. Federal Reserve announces the purchase of 300,000 million dollars in Treasury bills in the long run over the next six months, made through the issuance of banknotes, which will most likely occur in the future and to the extent the U.S. economy recovers, sharply.
Those who predict a solid future for the dollar include the U.S. trade deficit has been decreasing and is increasing the savings rate. Both figures reduce of a sharp adjustment.
Moreover, the evolution of the dollar was not the same against different currencies. Against the euro had, at the time, while a sharp devaluation of Asian currencies (through state intervention) were revalued at a rate much lower permanent prompting complaints from Washington that still remain.
In this context it has been a debate on the possibilities for the dollar remain so predominant a role as reserve currency. The Chinese proponents of change are already taking action, one of which was loaned a total of 95,000 billion yuan to several countries among which were Argentina, Indonesia and South Korea also announced new measures to encourage that more operations financial and trade in yuan.
But this whole debate is facing a big problem, because if the central banks emerge en masse from their dollars they will lose value and consequently reduce the amount of reserves that countries have.
Simultaneously, and paradoxically, days before the IMF reported that in the first quarter of the dollar's share in global reserves reached 65%, the highest percentage since 2007.
Tags: financial crisis, the dollar, The foreign exchange, U.S. economy, world currency exchange