The late 2008 and early 2009 have confirmed the fears of economic recession. Many countries have experienced two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, the official definition of recession. This affects the forefront of the country "Triad" (United States, European Union, Japan). The novelty is that the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) considers that the crisis in the United States began in late 2007. And it is deeper than just "shock" Financial. Asia vascille Above all, the theory of economic decoupling collapsed. China, whose growth had been going several years around 11%, now approaching 8%. A figure that threatens the country's ability to create enough jobs to integrate population migration from rural to urban areas.

"Harmony" the country's social, watchword of government, is threatened. Beijing has launched a nearly $ 500 billion (compared with 26 billion euros of our government). In India, trade deficits are beginning to weigh on the economy. "A spiral of mistrust" is not discarded. Moreover, the deficits are around 10% and foreign exchange reserves have shrunk to 50 billion dollars in three months. Inflation in Vietnam, amounting to 23% in 2008 according to the statistics bureau of the government, worried. The decline in exports and weaker domestic demand in Korea significantly weaken the country's growth. The Korean central bank announced an increase of only 1.3% of exports for 2009. As for the IMF, it assumes an increase of 2% of Korean GDP, its lowest level in 11 years. A global crisis The magnitude and speed of propagation of the crisis is unprecedented. Above all, it symbolizes the process of globalization of our economies. With a 15% drop in German industrial production (quarterly change in annualized source Thomson Financial), 20% in Japan and 25% in Korea, the world crisis gradually and violently all economies. Rising unemployment in Western countries is another disturbing reality in recent months. 2.5 million jobs destroyed in the United States, over one million in Spain. No country is spared and 2009 could go well beyond the 2008 figures. The France that flexibility in the labor market is less than that of Anglo-Saxon, may experience a sharp rise in unemployment in the coming months. An alarming spiral For many economists, the crisis is absolutely unique and has no equivalent that the Great Depression of 1929. Some figures are indeed alarming, growth in nominal retail sales in the United States has never been so low since the Second World War. This item is worrying insofar as it contributes to lower employment and business investment. This reduces the potential consumption of households for the coming months. This spiral is disturbing. The property prices have fallen nearly 25% in the U.S. since mid 2006. In the United Kingdom with a drop of more than 15% (source DATASTREAM), the crisis is so violent. In this field, France seems to be better protected. Despite a significant decline in quarterly real estate, our country has strengths. The low number of variable-rate loans, the relatively low rate debt of French households between 70 and 80% (140% against the U.S. or 170% in the United Kingdom) is a positive aspect. Recall that the subprime operation has no equivalent in our country. Deflation in the U.S. and Europe? The rapid decline in the price of many raw materials (a barrel from over $ 145 less 40) combined with the economic downturn has reduced global inflation by two. It ends in 2008 to under 4 % cons over 6% a few months earlier. Many experts are questioning the issue of deflation in the coming months, particularly in Japan, the United States and Europe. This hypothesis could actually happen in the case of a severe global depression, what we do not believe it! Next week, you will find our stock of financial conditions (interest rates, stock market, fiscal and monetary policies and exchange rates). Please respond and give us your comments!