Actually, for the reader of this page is, of course, no question. And then, as it is generally possible to specify if the torch of global macroeconomics and concurrently Deputy Chair of our Central already admitted that the reserves of the Central Bank decreased due to the fact that "Bank of its investment portfolio and there are securities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac »? That is, our, folk, public money has already disappeared from the global financial crisis. And still lost, because the reform of the Stabilization Fund has resulted in that part of the reserves of the Central Bank, corresponding to the stabilization fund, will now be directly controlled by the Ministry of Finance, which has already explained that they will invest in

Nevertheless, the last few days quite a lot of "experts" and even officials of the foaming at the mouth explain the general public concerned that the economic crisis in Russia will not affect that it will be some "backwater". Note that this is not the most frost-bitten characters: some do both argue that the crisis in the U.S. and never will - even though the dollar rushing down the "rapid jack, and data on the U.S. economy out such that most economists hair stand up end.

And therefore I want to give a very brief explanation of why the crisis is and why Russia was not inevitable. Just to clarify the situation, without going into details.

We begin with the fact that there are many ways of stimulating economic activity. Expansion of markets, changes in tax regime, reducing the cost of credit and so on. But in recent decades, the main instrument for promoting "Western" economy built on the dollar, was to encourage consumer demand. A stimulated by its emission (i.e. print) dollar. As a consequence, "Western" economic system seems to be actively developed, but a natural question. The money was printed, distributed (in the form of loans) to citizens, they are something they buy, and where the money to do next?

The answer is simple: you have to either give back their loans to citizens, for example, for home purchase or invest in some markets. And the result is obvious. American households have accumulated an incredible amount of debt (about 14 trillion U.S. GDP), financial markets (such as the U.S. stock market) has reached unprecedented heights, no less than the heights reached the price of goods, which supposedly could save their life savings - Gold , oil and metals.

And, of course, as a consequence, the rapid fall in the dollar and high inflation, which the U.S. has nearly reached double-digit values - 10%. And financial markets, real estate, in particular, has its last breath, because accustomed to the constant influx of additional cash and without it can not exist. And to give citizens the money is getting harder and harder because they are already, and so sit in debt up to their ears and completely incomprehensible, as it is possible to justify new loans. Without a radical change in approach to the assessment of financial risks.

We note that such changes in estimates have already begun, which in itself is very revealing. Not so long ago in the U.S. broke a solid scandal connected with insurance companies that insure mortgage securities. By all criteria, they had lower ratings, but in this case would be automatically dropped the ratings of all insured their securities, which in turn would require many companies working with the citizens' savings, pension funds, for example, get rid of them. And a new round of financial downturn would be inevitable.

And then it was decided not to change the rating. Yes, of course, this approach calls into question the entire system of general assessment of financial risks, but the consequences of this will be sometime later that any better than two weeks.

And now it is time to turn to Russia. This situation, as in the West today, the world has already happened. And always ended the same - deflationary shock, a sharp, rapid decline before pumped aggregate demand. The most famous example - in 1929 in the U.S., followed by "Great" Depression, but there were others. Sometimes the deflationary shock preceded by a period of hyperinflation, sometimes - no, but the result is always present.

So, as soon as the deflationary shock occurs, prices and demand for resources are falling rapidly. So much so that they are literally on the verge of profitability. But today Russia is living almost exclusively from oil and gas money. It is because of them paying pensions, wages and buy food, which our country itself can not provide fully. And what do we do in this situation? Spending reserves of the Central Bank and the Stabilization Fund? Which is stored in mortgage bonds the U.S.? Do not tell. And for how long enough that could scratch from the clutches of 'Western' financiers, given the fact that our corporate debt is almost equal to this same reserve and certainly more, if one subtracted the part that corresponds to the stabilization fund.

No, we do not just get a crisis, we will be even stronger than in the "West", because there used to maintain its economy and will do it all the forces, but we do not have the people or machinery, nor the most above, ideologies. So what trouble we grebe in full. I do not envy the new president, whom we get a couple of days.