Anyone can see recent weeks a continuous rise of financial markets. The CAC 40 has taken more than 30% since its low points (from 2,500 points to over 3300 points), the price of oil climbed by almost 60% (36 to $ 58 per barrel). The volatility has fallen sharply and the risk aversion has returned to levels close to the beginning of 2008. Asian markets have taken between 20 and 40% since the beginning of the year, Brazil is even better. We can speak of a real rally or stock buyers seem now to have resumed power over sellers. The question that interests us here is to understand this sudden increase in violent and financial

The IMF and various international institutions have continued to revise downwards their economic growth scenarios. The United States will see their GDP to contract by almost 3%, Japan for more than 6% and the Eurozone more than 4%. Brazil, long considered protected from the recession of the countries of the Triad would have a negative growth of 1.3% and Russia, attic raw materials, collapse of 6%.

India with a positive growth of 4.5% suffers from its heavy dependence on external funding. China would rise to 6.5% growth, a declaration's taken very seriously by the Chinese government (see our article "China Could spring a surprise").

The bad news are so many. The destruction of jobs in the United States (with about 600 000 monthly losses) are historical and compared with 250 000 casualties on the peak of the last two recessions. The unemployment rate rose from 5 to 8.5% and forecasters predict 10% by the end of the year. Without going into details about the collapse of business investment, the collapse of world trade and the significant drop in income from companies, the crisis is widespread and can find no point of comparison on the fifty recent years.

However, higher market shares based on evidence and should not be neglected.

If economic indicators (unemployment, growth, investment and consumption) have actually deteriorated in recent quarters, the measures taken by governments to stop this spiral is impressive.

Firstly, the monetary policies of Western central banks are particularly aggressive and expansionist (see our articles on the ECB and the Bank of England). The rate cut from the Fed, the Bank of England and ECB, but also the establishment of many non-conventional measures (the United States and the United Kingdom in particular) is beginning to be felt on the economy.

The lower cost of refinancing for banks (collapse of the EONIA), the redemption of debt undertaken by the monetary institutions and the purchase of Treasury bonds (U.S. and UK) are all factors favoring the 'injection of liquidity into the economy. Central bankers have expressed their desire not to fall into a deflationary spiral, as Japan has experienced in the early 90s and whose traces are still present in the economy (see our article on deflation ). All these monetary measures should have positive impacts in the coming months and are highly valued by financial markets.

Moreover, the fiscal stimulus should begin to take effect before the end of 2009. As such, remember that the new American plan, passed by the Obama administration, represents nearly 800 billion dollars and 5.5% of GDP. Taken together, taking into account the automatic stabilizers, plans to boost global account for more than 6% of world GDP. According to the IMF they would have allowed the global economy to avoid a further loss of 1.5 points in 2009.

The importance of fiscal stimulus packages in the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom, China and Japan and on coordination - in time at least - have reassured investors about the willingness of governments to act together and with a large amplitude to reinvigorate the global economy.

Finally, the rise of financial markets today is attributable to the improvement of certain leading indicators - particularly in the first world power - marked by investors and market operators by the end of the deterioration of the economy, possible low point in the recession and a recovery to come from savings in late 2009 early 2010.

The ISM index of U.S. employment has rebounded strongly in April year to 34.4 against 26.1 in February (low point). The decrease in job destruction published last week confirms this trend. Consumer confidence rose sharply after being stabilized in February and March. Not to mention household debt relief for the moment, stabilizing the debt ratio and the rise in savings rates help to reassure the forecasters - despite the drop in consumption that results.

While the crisis originated with the U.S. real estate, stocks of goods sold declined by 20% compared to the high point, mortgage rates have fallen sharply and the majority of "Resest of subprime has been made. Moreover, since the beginning of the year, prices tend to fall much more slowly. There is even a certain stabilization in many states.

Financial markets now seem to focus on the good news (see our article on "Sirens of recovery") and betting on a recovery in economic growth since the beginning of 2010.

To illustrate this, the poor performance of Arcelor, Société Générale or some big American company did not change the market euphoria. The statement Thursday Results of stress tests that require the recapitalization of 10 of 19 large U.S. banks with 75 billion dollars was a non event! For cons, the "good employment figures have continued to propel the markets.

Indicators ISM manufacturing and services have largely rebounded in April, but remain below 50 indicates a contraction in activity. They could indicate a recovery in economic activity in the second half, the most optimistic estimate.

Thus, investors now focus on "good" macro news that are reflected almost exclusively through a significant recovery of certain leading indicators. This must be confirmed in the coming months to validate the scenario anticipated by the markets. The base effects could help see a rebound in the economy for the second half of 2009.

But beyond this statistical element, financial markets have they joined the slow growth of years in Western countries, due to the necessary decelerating by households and states?