You have the floor – Damien Marietta: “Time to buy?”
February 11th, 2010
Ecofi call of professional economists and finance to understand how economic and financial crisis is experienced daily in the field.
Today, we find chronicled Damien Marietta, manager of equity portfolio in a large French investment bank. With a question: Can I buy shares now? And if so, under what conditions?
"There is a fortnight - in times of balance-one would have thought that the shares were cheap. But the worsening global economic situation is accelerating. The Chinese wall cracks. Germany suffered a lot and its industrial fabric seems very close to overheating. The United States experienced its worst crisis since at least 30 years. In short, the news is bad, trust is at its lowest. Everyone is now aware that we live in an exceptional
situation.
So, in this context rather apocalyptic, how to choose his actions?
There are basically two possible attitudes. Either one considers that the crisis is worthy of her 30 years: it is not about investing. Either you think the situation is serious, but that governments will respond and that the economy recovers.
If you're in the second case, we must now look carefully at the actions.
First board, if you buy, it must be done at low cost. Choose areas that seem less affected than others (avoid the automotive, construction ...).
Note also the ideal society, which must have lost much of its value: choose large-cap. Companies must have the lowest margins and historically low debt and restricted - because the debt burden may become difficult to bear.
Last point: it is important to look for companies with barriers to entry, because it is highly probable that we are witnessing a price war.
However, keep a cool head, be careful. Do not be fooled, given the situation, the number of companies will be reduced.
Tags: economic situation, financial, professional economists